Target Price Playground
AMAT
$530.27
🟢
AMAT IV: 53.4% — LOW
(-26.4% vs 30d avg of 72.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $465 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $530 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $51.86 · Δ -0.43
SHORT PUT · $490 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $29.75 · Δ -0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If AMAT hits $465 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns +$1,789 (80.9%) on $2,211 risked, vs $-6,527 (-12.3%) for 100 shares on $53,027. Options give 6.6× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMAT is at $465. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if AMAT hits $465 by Dec 18
+$1,789
+80.9% on $2,211 risked
Max Profit
+$1,789
If the stock ≤ $490 at expiry
Max Loss
−$2,211
Net debit
Break-even
$507.89
-4.22% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-11.34 / -4.64 / 4.43
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| AMAT Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $424 (-20%) | +$917 | +$1,078 | +$1,372 | +$1,789 |
| $451 (-15%) | +$626 | +$750 | +$1,011 | +$1,789 |
| $465 (-12%) ← target | +$459 | +$554 | +$767 | +$1,789 |
| $477 (-10%) | +$313 | +$378 | +$536 | +$1,789 |
| $504 (-5%) | -$6 | -$11 | -$4 | +$413 |
| $520 (-2%) | -$195 | -$243 | -$331 | -$1,177 |
| $530 (0%) ← spot | -$318 | -$393 | -$542 | -$2,211 |
| $541 (+2%) | -$438 | -$539 | -$743 | -$2,211 |
| $557 (+5%) | -$611 | -$748 | -$1,020 | -$2,211 |
| $583 (+10%) | -$879 | -$1,062 | -$1,408 | -$2,211 |
| $610 (+15%) | -$1,117 | -$1,328 | -$1,696 | -$2,211 |
| $636 (+20%) | -$1,323 | -$1,547 | -$1,896 | -$2,211 |
Uses AMAT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.