Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
AMAT
$530.27
🟢
AMAT IV: 53.4% — LOW (-26.4% vs 30d avg of 72.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $560 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

📋 Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

🎯 Target

72d from today

⚙️ Legs

SHORT PUT · $490 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $29.75 · Δ -0.32
P&L at Expiry Now $530 Target $560 $371 $530 $689
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target

If AMAT hits $560 by Dec 18: the cash-secured put returns +$2,975 (6.5%) on $-2,975 credit (max loss $46,025), vs +$2,973 (5.6%) for 100 shares on $53,027. Options give 1.2× capital efficiency.

📅 Expiry

Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMAT is at $560. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

📊 Projected Return

P&L if AMAT hits $560 by Dec 18
+$2,975
+6.5% on $46,025 max loss
Max Profit
+$2,975
If the stock ≥ $490 at expiry
Max Loss
−$46,025
If stock → $0 after assignment
Break-even
$460.25
-13.2% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
83%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
32.09 / 29.35 / -88.25
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
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📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates

AMAT Price Today Oct 31 Nov 24 Dec 18 (exp)
$424 (-20%) -$5,400 -$4,789 -$4,085 -$3,603
$451 (-15%) -$3,787 -$3,049 -$2,107 -$952
$477 (-10%) -$2,411 -$1,592 -$500 +$1,699
$504 (-5%) -$1,261 -$411 +$721 +$2,975
$520 (-2%) -$672 +$173 +$1,278 +$2,975
$530 (0%) ← spot -$318 +$516 +$1,585 +$2,975
$541 (+2%) +$6 +$823 +$1,845 +$2,975
$560 (+6%) ← target +$523 +$1,296 +$2,212 +$2,975
$583 (+10%) +$1,045 +$1,749 +$2,517 +$2,975
$610 (+15%) +$1,517 +$2,130 +$2,728 +$2,975
$636 (+20%) +$1,881 +$2,401 +$2,847 +$2,975
Uses AMAT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.