Target Price Playground
AMAT
$530.27
🟢
AMAT IV: 53.4% — LOW
(-26.4% vs 30d avg of 72.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $570 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $530.27 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $570 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $40.67 · Δ 0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If AMAT hits $570 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$8,040 (16.4%) on $48,960 risked, vs +$3,973 (7.5%) for 100 shares on $53,027. Options give 2.2× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMAT is at $570. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if AMAT hits $570 by Dec 18
+$8,040
+16.4% on $48,960 risked
Max Profit
+$8,040
If the stock ≥ $570 at expiry
Max Loss
−$48,960
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$489.60
-7.67% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
77%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
54.61 / 40.21 / -93.33
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| AMAT Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $424 (-20%) | -$7,389 | -$6,941 | -$6,607 | -$6,538 |
| $451 (-15%) | -$5,256 | -$4,640 | -$4,083 | -$3,887 |
| $477 (-10%) | -$3,304 | -$2,522 | -$1,699 | -$1,236 |
| $504 (-5%) | -$1,550 | -$618 | +$470 | +$1,416 |
| $520 (-2%) | -$596 | +$411 | +$1,638 | +$3,006 |
| $530 (0%) ← spot | -$0 | +$1,049 | +$2,355 | +$4,067 |
| $541 (+2%) | +$563 | +$1,647 | +$3,020 | +$5,128 |
| $557 (+5%) | +$1,347 | +$2,471 | +$3,915 | +$6,718 |
| $570 (+7%) ← target | +$1,946 | +$3,091 | +$4,568 | +$8,040 |
| $583 (+10%) | +$2,501 | +$3,657 | +$5,142 | +$8,040 |
| $610 (+15%) | +$3,475 | +$4,621 | +$6,058 | +$8,040 |
| $636 (+20%) | +$4,286 | +$5,390 | +$6,710 | +$8,040 |
Uses AMAT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.