Target Price Playground
AMAT
$530.27
🟢
AMAT IV: 53.4% — LOW
(-26.4% vs 30d avg of 72.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $465 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $530 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $51.86 · Δ -0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If AMAT hits $465 by Dec 18: the long put returns +$1,314 (25.3%) on $5,186 risked, vs $-6,527 (-12.3%) for 100 shares on $53,027. Options give 2.1× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMAT is at $465. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if AMAT hits $465 by Dec 18
+$1,314
+25.3% on $5,186 risked
Max Profit
+$47,814
If stock → $0
Max Loss
−$5,186
Premium paid
Break-even
$478.14
-9.83% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-43.42 / -34.0 / 92.68
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| AMAT Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $424 (-20%) | +$6,317 | +$5,867 | +$5,456 | +$5,392 |
| $451 (-15%) | +$4,413 | +$3,799 | +$3,119 | +$2,741 |
| $465 (-12%) ← target | +$3,477 | +$2,783 | +$1,961 | +$1,314 |
| $477 (-10%) | +$2,724 | +$1,970 | +$1,035 | +$90 |
| $504 (-5%) | +$1,255 | +$400 | -$725 | -$2,562 |
| $520 (-2%) | +$477 | -$416 | -$1,609 | -$4,152 |
| $530 (0%) ← spot | +$0 | -$909 | -$2,127 | -$5,186 |
| $541 (+2%) | -$444 | -$1,363 | -$2,588 | -$5,186 |
| $557 (+5%) | -$1,053 | -$1,971 | -$3,179 | -$5,186 |
| $583 (+10%) | -$1,924 | -$2,811 | -$3,924 | -$5,186 |
| $610 (+15%) | -$2,633 | -$3,459 | -$4,425 | -$5,186 |
| $636 (+20%) | -$3,204 | -$3,948 | -$4,744 | -$5,186 |
Uses AMAT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.