Target Price Playground
AMAT
$530.27
🟢
AMAT IV: 53.4% — LOW
(-26.4% vs 30d avg of 72.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $580 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $530.27 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $500 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $34.2 · Δ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If AMAT hits $580 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$1,553 (2.8%) on $56,447 risked, vs +$4,973 (9.4%) for 100 shares on $53,027. Options give 0.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMAT is at $580. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if AMAT hits $580 by Dec 18
+$1,553
+2.8% on $56,447 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$6,447
Put floors you at $500
Break-even
$564.47
+6.45% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
72%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
64.74 / -29.86 / 89.36
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| AMAT Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $424 (-20%) | -$4,901 | -$5,475 | -$6,106 | -$6,447 |
| $451 (-15%) | -$3,941 | -$4,655 | -$5,541 | -$6,447 |
| $477 (-10%) | -$2,748 | -$3,561 | -$4,632 | -$6,447 |
| $504 (-5%) | -$1,329 | -$2,190 | -$3,343 | -$6,071 |
| $520 (-2%) | -$375 | -$1,243 | -$2,392 | -$4,481 |
| $530 (0%) ← spot | +$302 | -$561 | -$1,689 | -$3,420 |
| $541 (+2%) | +$1,008 | +$157 | -$935 | -$2,359 |
| $557 (+5%) | +$2,121 | +$1,297 | +$279 | -$769 |
| $580 (+9%) ← target | +$3,850 | +$3,085 | +$2,203 | +$1,553 |
| $610 (+15%) | +$6,229 | +$5,559 | +$4,870 | +$4,534 |
| $636 (+20%) | +$8,467 | +$7,891 | +$7,365 | +$7,185 |
Uses AMAT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.