Target Price Playground
AMAT
$530.27
🟢
AMAT IV: 53.4% — LOW
(-26.4% vs 30d avg of 72.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $610 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $530 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $56.82 · Δ 0.57
LONG PUT · $530 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $51.86 · Δ -0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If AMAT hits $610 by Dec 18: the long straddle returns $-2,868 (-26.4%) on $10,868 risked, vs +$7,973 (15.0%) for 100 shares on $53,027. Options give 1.8× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMAT is at $610. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if AMAT hits $610 by Dec 18
$-2,868
-26.4% on $10,868 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
−$10,868
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$638.68
+20.44% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
56%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
13.15 / -74.47 / 185.35
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| AMAT Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $424 (-20%) | +$2,028 | +$974 | -$5 | -$290 |
| $451 (-15%) | +$872 | -$512 | -$2,029 | -$2,941 |
| $477 (-10%) | +$145 | -$1,519 | -$3,545 | -$5,592 |
| $504 (-5%) | -$142 | -$2,008 | -$4,413 | -$8,244 |
| $520 (-2%) | -$107 | -$2,049 | -$4,591 | -$9,834 |
| $530 (0%) ← spot | +$0 | -$1,975 | -$4,566 | -$10,841 |
| $541 (+2%) | +$172 | -$1,821 | -$4,427 | -$9,780 |
| $557 (+5%) | +$544 | -$1,447 | -$4,019 | -$8,190 |
| $583 (+10%) | +$1,455 | -$475 | -$2,858 | -$5,538 |
| $610 (+15%) ← target | +$2,696 | +$891 | -$1,194 | -$2,868 |
| $636 (+20%) | +$4,196 | +$2,552 | +$806 | -$236 |
Uses AMAT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.