Target Price Playground
AMAT
$615.09
๐ข
AMAT IV: 67.8% โ LOW
(-25.5% vs 30d avg of 90.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $660 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $615.09 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $660 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $62.36 ยท ฮ 0.48
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMAT hits $660 by Aug 21: the covered call returns +$10,727 (19.4%) on $55,273 risked, vs +$4,491 (7.3%) for 100 shares on $61,509. Options give 2.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMAT is at $660. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMAT hits $660 by Aug 21
+$10,727
+19.4% on $55,273 risked
Max Profit
+$10,727
If the stock โฅ $660 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$55,273
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$552.73
-10.14% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
81%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
52.15 / 62.55 / -104.34
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMAT Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $492 (-20%) | -$7,562 | -$6,862 | -$6,260 | -$6,066 |
| $523 (-15%) | -$5,221 | -$4,324 | -$3,431 | -$2,990 |
| $554 (-10%) | -$3,082 | -$1,999 | -$797 | +$85 |
| $584 (-5%) | -$1,152 | +$91 | +$1,580 | +$3,161 |
| $603 (-2%) | -$96 | +$1,226 | +$2,860 | +$5,006 |
| $615 (0%) โ spot | +$566 | +$1,932 | +$3,648 | +$6,236 |
| $627 (+2%) | +$1,195 | +$2,599 | +$4,382 | +$7,466 |
| $646 (+5%) | +$2,078 | +$3,525 | +$5,381 | +$9,311 |
| $660 (+7%) โ target | +$2,708 | +$4,177 | +$6,067 | +$10,727 |
| $677 (+10%) | +$3,396 | +$4,879 | +$6,782 | +$10,727 |
| $707 (+15%) | +$4,531 | +$6,011 | +$7,872 | +$10,727 |
| $738 (+20%) | +$5,502 | +$6,943 | +$8,693 | +$10,727 |
Uses AMAT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.