Target Price Playground
AMGN
$402.60
🟢
AMGN IV: 29.3% — LOW
(-49.4% vs 30d avg of 57.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $355 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $405 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $19.47 · Δ -0.51
SHORT PUT · $370 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $8.75 · Δ -0.25
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If AMGN hits $355 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns +$2,428 (226.5%) on $1,072 risked, vs $-4,760 (-11.8%) for 100 shares on $40,260. Options give 19.2× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMGN is at $355. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if AMGN hits $355 by Dec 18
+$2,428
+226.5% on $1,072 risked
Max Profit
+$2,428
If the stock ≤ $370 at expiry
Max Loss
−$1,072
Net debit
Break-even
$394.28
-2.07% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
41%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-26.12 / -1.86 / 12.5
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| AMGN Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $322 (-20%) | +$2,047 | +$2,195 | +$2,360 | +$2,428 |
| $342 (-15%) | +$1,721 | +$1,889 | +$2,152 | +$2,428 |
| $355 (-12%) ← target | +$1,455 | +$1,603 | +$1,872 | +$2,428 |
| $362 (-10%) | +$1,287 | +$1,411 | +$1,652 | +$2,428 |
| $382 (-5%) | +$797 | +$825 | +$884 | +$1,181 |
| $395 (-2%) | +$502 | +$467 | +$388 | -$27 |
| $403 (0%) ← spot | +$314 | +$240 | +$82 | -$832 |
| $411 (+2%) | +$135 | +$28 | -$190 | -$1,072 |
| $423 (+5%) | -$108 | -$252 | -$518 | -$1,072 |
| $443 (+10%) | -$441 | -$606 | -$855 | -$1,072 |
| $463 (+15%) | -$682 | -$830 | -$1,002 | -$1,072 |
| $483 (+20%) | -$843 | -$956 | -$1,053 | -$1,072 |
Uses AMGN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.