Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
AMGN
$402.60
🟢
AMGN IV: 29.3% — LOW (-49.4% vs 30d avg of 57.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $425 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

📋 Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

🎯 Target

72d from today

⚙️ Legs

SHORT PUT · $370 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $8.75 · Δ -0.25
P&L at Expiry Now $403 Target $425 $282 $403 $523
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target

If AMGN hits $425 by Dec 18: the cash-secured put returns +$875 (2.4%) on $-875 credit (max loss $36,125), vs +$2,240 (5.6%) for 100 shares on $40,260. Options give 0.4× capital efficiency.

📅 Expiry

Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMGN is at $425. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

📊 Projected Return

P&L if AMGN hits $425 by Dec 18
+$875
+2.4% on $36,125 max loss
Max Profit
+$875
If the stock ≥ $370 at expiry
Max Loss
−$36,125
If stock → $0 after assignment
Break-even
$361.25
-10.27% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
70%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
24.78 / 10.92 / -58.33
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
💾 Log in to save 📊 My Saved Strategies

📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates

AMGN Price Today Oct 31 Nov 24 Dec 18 (exp)
$322 (-20%) -$4,080 -$3,957 -$3,868 -$3,917
$342 (-15%) -$2,609 -$2,368 -$2,086 -$1,904
$362 (-10%) -$1,436 -$1,118 -$689 +$109
$382 (-5%) -$571 -$241 +$196 +$875
$395 (-2%) -$187 +$122 +$503 +$875
$403 (0%) ← spot +$21 +$306 +$636 +$875
$411 (+2%) +$193 +$451 +$727 +$875
$425 (+6%) ← target +$429 +$633 +$816 +$875
$443 (+10%) +$621 +$761 +$859 +$875
$463 (+15%) +$746 +$830 +$872 +$875
$483 (+20%) +$812 +$858 +$874 +$875
Uses AMGN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.