Target Price Playground
AMGN
$402.60
🟢
AMGN IV: 29.3% — LOW
(-49.4% vs 30d avg of 57.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $435 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $402.6 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $435 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $7.7 · Δ 0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If AMGN hits $435 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$4,010 (10.2%) on $39,490 risked, vs +$3,240 (8.0%) for 100 shares on $40,260. Options give 1.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMGN is at $435. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if AMGN hits $435 by Dec 18
+$4,010
+10.2% on $39,490 risked
Max Profit
+$4,010
If the stock ≥ $435 at expiry
Max Loss
−$39,490
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$394.90
-1.91% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
57%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
71.05 / 12.86 / -64.86
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| AMGN Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $322 (-20%) | -$7,323 | -$7,290 | -$7,282 | -$7,282 |
| $342 (-15%) | -$5,394 | -$5,307 | -$5,271 | -$5,269 |
| $362 (-10%) | -$3,566 | -$3,389 | -$3,273 | -$3,256 |
| $382 (-5%) | -$1,900 | -$1,604 | -$1,338 | -$1,243 |
| $395 (-2%) | -$1,002 | -$634 | -$251 | -$35 |
| $403 (0%) ← spot | -$452 | -$40 | +$422 | +$770 |
| $411 (+2%) | +$56 | +$507 | +$1,041 | +$1,575 |
| $423 (+5%) | +$740 | +$1,234 | +$1,851 | +$2,783 |
| $435 (+8%) ← target | +$1,337 | +$1,854 | +$2,510 | +$4,010 |
| $443 (+10%) | +$1,669 | +$2,189 | +$2,845 | +$4,010 |
| $463 (+15%) | +$2,353 | +$2,845 | +$3,427 | +$4,010 |
| $483 (+20%) | +$2,831 | +$3,260 | +$3,710 | +$4,010 |
Uses AMGN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.