Target Price Playground
AMGN
$402.60
🟢
AMGN IV: 29.3% — LOW
(-49.4% vs 30d avg of 57.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $380 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $405 · Jan '27
Qty 1 · Premium $25.05 · Δ -0.5
SHORT PUT · $380 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $11.55 · Δ -0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If AMGN hits $380 by Dec 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,355 (100.4%) on $1,350 risked, vs $-2,260 (-5.6%) for 100 shares on $40,260. Options give 17.9× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMGN is at $380. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if AMGN hits $380 by Dec 18
+$1,355
+100.4% on $1,350 risked
Max Profit
+$1,322
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
−$1,350
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$400.63
-0.49% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
70%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-18.33 / 1.93 / 23.52
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| AMGN Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $322 (-20%) | +$927 | +$992 | +$1,035 | +$1,016 |
| $342 (-15%) | +$815 | +$918 | +$1,039 | +$1,053 |
| $362 (-10%) | +$625 | +$744 | +$935 | +$1,200 |
| $380 (-6%) ← target | +$400 | +$500 | +$680 | +$1,533 |
| $395 (-2%) | +$186 | +$250 | +$362 | +$572 |
| $403 (0%) ← spot | +$62 | +$100 | +$160 | +$139 |
| $411 (+2%) | -$64 | -$52 | -$46 | -$223 |
| $423 (+5%) | -$249 | -$275 | -$343 | -$639 |
| $443 (+10%) | -$534 | -$610 | -$755 | -$1,057 |
| $463 (+15%) | -$773 | -$874 | -$1,033 | -$1,245 |
| $483 (+20%) | -$960 | -$1,062 | -$1,194 | -$1,317 |
Uses AMGN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.