Target Price Playground
AMGN
$402.60
🟢
AMGN IV: 29.3% — LOW
(-49.4% vs 30d avg of 57.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $450 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $405 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $17.35 · Δ 0.5
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If AMGN hits $450 by Dec 18: the long call returns +$2,765 (159.4%) on $1,735 risked, vs +$4,740 (11.8%) for 100 shares on $40,260. Options give 13.5× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMGN is at $450. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if AMGN hits $450 by Dec 18
+$2,765
+159.4% on $1,735 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
−$1,735
Premium paid
Break-even
$422.35
+4.91% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
41%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
49.6 / -15.69 / 70.7
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| AMGN Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $322 (-20%) | -$1,596 | -$1,689 | -$1,732 | -$1,735 |
| $342 (-15%) | -$1,380 | -$1,571 | -$1,709 | -$1,735 |
| $362 (-10%) | -$973 | -$1,286 | -$1,593 | -$1,735 |
| $382 (-5%) | -$316 | -$736 | -$1,234 | -$1,735 |
| $395 (-2%) | +$213 | -$249 | -$828 | -$1,735 |
| $403 (0%) ← spot | +$623 | +$145 | -$463 | -$1,735 |
| $411 (+2%) | +$1,077 | +$593 | -$20 | -$1,170 |
| $423 (+5%) | +$1,838 | +$1,362 | +$780 | +$38 |
| $443 (+10%) | +$3,294 | +$2,870 | +$2,404 | +$2,051 |
| $450 (+12%) ← target | +$3,859 | +$3,460 | +$3,043 | +$2,765 |
| $463 (+15%) | +$4,941 | +$4,590 | +$4,257 | +$4,064 |
| $483 (+20%) | +$6,727 | +$6,449 | +$6,216 | +$6,077 |
Uses AMGN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.