Target Price Playground
AMGN
$402.60
🟢
AMGN IV: 29.3% — LOW
(-49.4% vs 30d avg of 57.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $355 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $405 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $19.47 · Δ -0.51
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If AMGN hits $355 by Dec 18: the long put returns +$3,053 (156.8%) on $1,947 risked, vs $-4,760 (-11.8%) for 100 shares on $40,260. Options give 13.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMGN is at $355. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if AMGN hits $355 by Dec 18
+$3,053
+156.8% on $1,947 risked
Max Profit
+$38,553
If stock → $0
Max Loss
−$1,947
Premium paid
Break-even
$385.53
-4.24% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
41%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-50.89 / -12.78 / 70.83
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| AMGN Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $322 (-20%) | +$6,126 | +$6,152 | +$6,228 | +$6,345 |
| $342 (-15%) | +$4,329 | +$4,257 | +$4,239 | +$4,332 |
| $355 (-12%) ← target | +$3,282 | +$3,133 | +$3,014 | +$3,053 |
| $362 (-10%) | +$2,723 | +$2,529 | +$2,341 | +$2,319 |
| $382 (-5%) | +$1,367 | +$1,066 | +$687 | +$306 |
| $395 (-2%) | +$689 | +$345 | -$115 | -$902 |
| $403 (0%) ← spot | +$293 | -$66 | -$554 | -$1,707 |
| $411 (+2%) | -$58 | -$423 | -$917 | -$1,947 |
| $423 (+5%) | -$505 | -$861 | -$1,325 | -$1,947 |
| $443 (+10%) | -$1,062 | -$1,367 | -$1,714 | -$1,947 |
| $463 (+15%) | -$1,427 | -$1,660 | -$1,873 | -$1,947 |
| $483 (+20%) | -$1,655 | -$1,814 | -$1,927 | -$1,947 |
Uses AMGN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.