Target Price Playground
AMGN
$402.60
🟢
AMGN IV: 29.3% — LOW
(-49.4% vs 30d avg of 57.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $445 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $402.6 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $380 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $11.55 · Δ -0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If AMGN hits $445 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$3,085 (7.4%) on $41,415 risked, vs +$4,240 (10.5%) for 100 shares on $40,260. Options give 0.7× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMGN is at $445. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if AMGN hits $445 by Dec 18
+$3,085
+7.4% on $41,415 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$3,415
Put floors you at $380
Break-even
$414.15
+2.87% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
46%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
68.47 / -12.33 / 59.53
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| AMGN Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $322 (-20%) | -$3,402 | -$3,476 | -$3,500 | -$3,415 |
| $342 (-15%) | -$2,976 | -$3,171 | -$3,370 | -$3,415 |
| $362 (-10%) | -$2,277 | -$2,574 | -$2,957 | -$3,415 |
| $382 (-5%) | -$1,277 | -$1,619 | -$2,082 | -$3,168 |
| $395 (-2%) | -$536 | -$874 | -$1,316 | -$1,960 |
| $403 (0%) ← spot | +$11 | -$313 | -$719 | -$1,155 |
| $411 (+2%) | +$596 | +$294 | -$63 | -$350 |
| $423 (+5%) | +$1,539 | +$1,278 | +$1,002 | +$858 |
| $445 (+11%) ← target | +$3,440 | +$3,261 | +$3,119 | +$3,085 |
| $463 (+15%) | +$5,085 | +$4,966 | +$4,893 | +$4,884 |
| $483 (+20%) | +$6,999 | +$6,929 | +$6,899 | +$6,897 |
Uses AMGN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.