Target Price Playground
AMGN
$402.60
🟢
AMGN IV: 29.3% — LOW
(-49.4% vs 30d avg of 57.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $465 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $405 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $17.35 · Δ 0.5
LONG PUT · $405 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $19.47 · Δ -0.51
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If AMGN hits $465 by Dec 18: the long straddle returns +$2,318 (63.0%) on $3,682 risked, vs +$6,240 (15.5%) for 100 shares on $40,260. Options give 4.1× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMGN is at $465. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if AMGN hits $465 by Dec 18
+$2,318
+63.0% on $3,682 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
−$3,682
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$368.18
-8.55% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
28%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-1.3 / -28.47 / 141.52
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| AMGN Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $322 (-20%) | +$4,530 | +$4,463 | +$4,496 | +$4,610 |
| $342 (-15%) | +$2,950 | +$2,685 | +$2,530 | +$2,597 |
| $362 (-10%) | +$1,750 | +$1,243 | +$748 | +$584 |
| $382 (-5%) | +$1,052 | +$330 | -$547 | -$1,429 |
| $395 (-2%) | +$902 | +$96 | -$942 | -$2,637 |
| $403 (0%) ← spot | +$916 | +$78 | -$1,017 | -$3,442 |
| $411 (+2%) | +$1,019 | +$170 | -$937 | -$3,117 |
| $423 (+5%) | +$1,333 | +$501 | -$545 | -$1,909 |
| $443 (+10%) | +$2,232 | +$1,503 | +$690 | +$104 |
| $465 (+15%) ← target | +$3,659 | +$3,091 | +$2,568 | +$2,318 |
| $483 (+20%) | +$5,073 | +$4,634 | +$4,289 | +$4,130 |
Uses AMGN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.