Target Price Playground
AMGN
$363.39
๐ข
AMGN IV: 29.2% โ LOW
(-49.0% vs 30d avg of 57.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $390 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
69d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $363.39 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $390 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.9 ยท ฮ 0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMGN hits $390 by Sep 18: the covered call returns +$3,551 (10.0%) on $35,449 risked, vs +$2,661 (7.3%) for 100 shares on $36,339. Options give 1.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (69 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMGN is at $390. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMGN hits $390 by Sep 18
+$3,551
+10.0% on $35,449 risked
Max Profit
+$3,551
If the stock โฅ $390 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$35,449
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$354.49
-2.45% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
57%
IV-implied, 69d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
68.13 / 11.65 / -57.16
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMGN Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $291 (-20%) | -$6,400 | -$6,382 | -$6,378 | -$6,378 |
| $309 (-15%) | -$4,638 | -$4,582 | -$4,562 | -$4,561 |
| $327 (-10%) | -$2,961 | -$2,831 | -$2,754 | -$2,744 |
| $345 (-5%) | -$1,430 | -$1,197 | -$993 | -$927 |
| $356 (-2%) | -$609 | -$310 | -$3 | +$163 |
| $363 (0%) โ spot | -$109 | +$230 | +$608 | +$890 |
| $371 (+2%) | +$350 | +$723 | +$1,166 | +$1,617 |
| $382 (+5%) | +$959 | +$1,369 | +$1,882 | +$2,707 |
| $390 (+7%) โ target | +$1,366 | +$1,790 | +$2,327 | +$3,551 |
| $400 (+10%) | +$1,766 | +$2,191 | +$2,722 | +$3,551 |
| $418 (+15%) | +$2,333 | +$2,723 | +$3,167 | +$3,551 |
| $436 (+20%) | +$2,707 | +$3,033 | +$3,355 | +$3,551 |
Uses AMGN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.