Target Price Playground
AVGO
$407.34
๐ข
AVGO IV: 51.5% โ LOW
(-35.5% vs 30d avg of 79.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $440 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $407.34 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $440 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $21.88 ยท ฮ 0.41
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AVGO hits $440 by Aug 21: the covered call returns +$5,454 (14.1%) on $38,546 risked, vs +$3,266 (8.0%) for 100 shares on $40,734. Options give 1.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AVGO is at $440. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AVGO hits $440 by Aug 21
+$5,454
+14.1% on $38,546 risked
Max Profit
+$5,454
If the stock โฅ $440 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$38,546
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$385.46
-5.37% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
59.4 / 27.42 / -70.3
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AVGO Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $326 (-20%) | -$6,288 | -$6,091 | -$5,974 | -$5,959 |
| $346 (-15%) | -$4,528 | -$4,220 | -$3,981 | -$3,922 |
| $367 (-10%) | -$2,906 | -$2,474 | -$2,063 | -$1,885 |
| $387 (-5%) | -$1,447 | -$896 | -$290 | +$151 |
| $399 (-2%) | -$656 | -$44 | +$675 | +$1,373 |
| $407 (0%) โ spot | -$165 | +$483 | +$1,267 | +$2,188 |
| $415 (+2%) | +$296 | +$974 | +$1,815 | +$3,003 |
| $428 (+5%) | +$933 | +$1,645 | +$2,548 | +$4,225 |
| $440 (+8%) โ target | +$1,509 | +$2,240 | +$3,175 | +$5,454 |
| $448 (+10%) | +$1,852 | +$2,589 | +$3,528 | +$5,454 |
| $468 (+15%) | +$2,606 | +$3,332 | +$4,228 | +$5,454 |
| $489 (+20%) | +$3,211 | +$3,896 | +$4,693 | +$5,454 |
Uses AVGO's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.