Target Price Playground
AXON
$427.77
🟢
AXON IV: 56.7% — LOW
(-30.6% vs 30d avg of 81.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $480 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $430 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $45.0 · Δ 0.54
SHORT CALL · $460 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $32.4 · Δ 0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If AXON hits $480 by Dec 18: the bull call spread returns +$1,740 (138.1%) on $1,260 risked, vs +$5,223 (12.2%) for 100 shares on $42,777. Options give 11.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AXON is at $480. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if AXON hits $480 by Dec 18
+$1,740
+138.1% on $1,260 risked
Max Profit
+$1,740
If the stock ≥ $460 at expiry
Max Loss
−$1,260
Net debit
Break-even
$442.60
+3.47% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
58%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
10.01 / -0.41 / -2.41
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| AXON Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $342 (-20%) | -$953 | -$1,065 | -$1,204 | -$1,260 |
| $364 (-15%) | -$782 | -$904 | -$1,100 | -$1,260 |
| $385 (-10%) | -$571 | -$682 | -$897 | -$1,260 |
| $406 (-5%) | -$331 | -$407 | -$581 | -$1,260 |
| $419 (-2%) | -$179 | -$226 | -$345 | -$1,260 |
| $428 (0%) ← spot | -$75 | -$100 | -$175 | -$1,260 |
| $436 (+2%) | +$28 | +$26 | +$1 | -$627 |
| $449 (+5%) | +$183 | +$215 | +$268 | +$656 |
| $471 (+10%) | +$431 | +$518 | +$687 | +$1,740 |
| $480 (+12%) ← target | +$535 | +$643 | +$852 | +$1,740 |
| $492 (+15%) | +$661 | +$791 | +$1,038 | +$1,740 |
| $513 (+20%) | +$865 | +$1,023 | +$1,301 | +$1,740 |
Uses AXON's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.