Target Price Playground
AXON
$427.77
🟢
AXON IV: 56.7% — LOW
(-30.6% vs 30d avg of 81.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $375 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $430 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $45.6 · Δ -0.46
SHORT PUT · $395 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $21.22 · Δ -0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If AXON hits $375 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns +$1,062 (43.6%) on $2,438 risked, vs $-5,277 (-12.3%) for 100 shares on $42,777. Options give 3.5× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AXON is at $375. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if AXON hits $375 by Dec 18
+$1,062
+43.6% on $2,438 risked
Max Profit
+$1,062
If the stock ≤ $395 at expiry
Max Loss
−$2,438
Net debit
Break-even
$405.62
-5.18% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
58%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-15.27 / -10.68 / 6.76
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| AXON Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $342 (-20%) | +$421 | +$569 | +$814 | +$1,062 |
| $364 (-15%) | +$143 | +$267 | +$514 | +$1,062 |
| $375 (-12%) ← target | -$19 | +$80 | +$293 | +$1,062 |
| $385 (-10%) | -$168 | -$96 | +$69 | +$1,062 |
| $406 (-5%) | -$492 | -$490 | -$469 | -$76 |
| $419 (-2%) | -$685 | -$726 | -$801 | -$1,359 |
| $428 (0%) ← spot | -$811 | -$880 | -$1,015 | -$2,215 |
| $436 (+2%) | -$934 | -$1,028 | -$1,217 | -$2,438 |
| $449 (+5%) | -$1,110 | -$1,238 | -$1,491 | -$2,438 |
| $471 (+10%) | -$1,377 | -$1,546 | -$1,856 | -$2,438 |
| $492 (+15%) | -$1,607 | -$1,797 | -$2,106 | -$2,438 |
| $513 (+20%) | -$1,799 | -$1,990 | -$2,261 | -$2,438 |
Uses AXON's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.