Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
AXON
$427.77
🟢
AXON IV: 56.7% — LOW (-30.6% vs 30d avg of 81.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $450 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

📋 Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

🎯 Target

48d from today

⚙️ Legs

SHORT PUT · $395 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $21.22 · Δ -0.31
P&L at Expiry Now $428 Target $450 $299 $428 $556
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target

If AXON hits $450 by Dec 18: the cash-secured put returns +$2,122 (5.7%) on $-2,122 credit (max loss $37,378), vs +$2,223 (5.2%) for 100 shares on $42,777. Options give 1.1× capital efficiency.

📅 Expiry

Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AXON is at $450. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

📊 Projected Return

P&L if AXON hits $450 by Dec 18
+$2,122
+5.7% on $37,378 max loss
Max Profit
+$2,122
If the stock ≥ $395 at expiry
Max Loss
−$37,378
If stock → $0 after assignment
Break-even
$373.78
-12.62% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
81%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
30.93 / 32.83 / -54.67
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
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📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates

AXON Price Today Nov 16 Dec 2 Dec 18 (exp)
$342 (-20%) -$4,237 -$3,834 -$3,394 -$3,156
$364 (-15%) -$2,858 -$2,348 -$1,711 -$1,018
$385 (-10%) -$1,698 -$1,120 -$356 +$1,121
$406 (-5%) -$751 -$153 +$635 +$2,122
$419 (-2%) -$279 +$310 +$1,067 +$2,122
$428 (0%) ← spot +$0 +$575 +$1,295 +$2,122
$436 (+2%) +$251 +$807 +$1,481 +$2,122
$450 (+5%) ← target +$601 +$1,118 +$1,705 +$2,122
$471 (+10%) +$1,020 +$1,466 +$1,915 +$2,122
$492 (+15%) +$1,345 +$1,711 +$2,028 +$2,122
$513 (+20%) +$1,581 +$1,870 +$2,082 +$2,122
Uses AXON's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.