Target Price Playground
AXON
$427.77
🟢
AXON IV: 56.7% — LOW
(-30.6% vs 30d avg of 81.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $405 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $430 · Jan '27
Qty 1 · Premium $46.1 · Δ -0.45
SHORT PUT · $405 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $25.33 · Δ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If AXON hits $405 by Dec 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$2,181 (105.0%) on $2,077 risked, vs $-2,277 (-5.3%) for 100 shares on $42,777. Options give 19.8× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AXON is at $405. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if AXON hits $405 by Dec 18
+$2,181
+105.0% on $2,077 risked
Max Profit
+$2,163
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
−$1,810
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$451.70
+5.59% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
81%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-10.17 / 4.03 / 19.23
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| AXON Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $342 (-20%) | +$459 | +$562 | +$663 | +$549 |
| $364 (-15%) | +$420 | +$565 | +$772 | +$858 |
| $385 (-10%) | +$332 | +$498 | +$781 | +$1,366 |
| $405 (-5%) ← target | +$208 | +$369 | +$662 | +$2,058 |
| $419 (-2%) | +$98 | +$242 | +$502 | +$1,264 |
| $428 (0%) ← spot | +$24 | +$153 | +$380 | +$841 |
| $436 (+2%) | -$53 | +$57 | +$243 | +$459 |
| $449 (+5%) | -$177 | -$98 | +$19 | -$43 |
| $471 (+10%) | -$392 | -$371 | -$376 | -$703 |
| $492 (+15%) | -$611 | -$645 | -$754 | -$1,175 |
| $513 (+20%) | -$822 | -$903 | -$1,083 | -$1,501 |
Uses AXON's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.