Target Price Playground
AXON
$427.77
🟢
AXON IV: 56.7% — LOW
(-30.6% vs 30d avg of 81.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $480 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $430 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $45.0 · Δ 0.54
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If AXON hits $480 by Dec 18: the long call returns +$500 (11.1%) on $4,500 risked, vs +$5,223 (12.2%) for 100 shares on $42,777. Options give 0.9× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AXON is at $480. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if AXON hits $480 by Dec 18
+$500
+11.1% on $4,500 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
−$4,500
Premium paid
Break-even
$475.00
+11.04% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
58%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
54.16 / -48.52 / 61.41
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| AXON Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $342 (-20%) | -$3,806 | -$4,146 | -$4,425 | -$4,500 |
| $364 (-15%) | -$3,325 | -$3,796 | -$4,270 | -$4,500 |
| $385 (-10%) | -$2,657 | -$3,247 | -$3,931 | -$4,500 |
| $406 (-5%) | -$1,789 | -$2,469 | -$3,322 | -$4,500 |
| $419 (-2%) | -$1,172 | -$1,886 | -$2,802 | -$4,500 |
| $428 (0%) ← spot | -$721 | -$1,448 | -$2,388 | -$4,500 |
| $436 (+2%) | -$239 | -$973 | -$1,920 | -$3,867 |
| $449 (+5%) | +$539 | -$194 | -$1,124 | -$2,584 |
| $471 (+10%) | +$1,972 | +$1,272 | +$429 | -$445 |
| $480 (+12%) ← target | +$2,655 | +$1,978 | +$1,191 | +$500 |
| $492 (+15%) | +$3,556 | +$2,916 | +$2,205 | +$1,694 |
| $513 (+20%) | +$5,266 | +$4,701 | +$4,135 | +$3,832 |
Uses AXON's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.