Target Price Playground
AXON
$427.77
🟢
AXON IV: 56.7% — LOW
(-30.6% vs 30d avg of 81.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $375 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $430 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $45.6 · Δ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If AXON hits $375 by Dec 18: the long put returns +$940 (20.6%) on $4,560 risked, vs $-5,277 (-12.3%) for 100 shares on $42,777. Options give 1.7× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AXON is at $375. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if AXON hits $375 by Dec 18
+$940
+20.6% on $4,560 risked
Max Profit
+$38,440
If stock → $0
Max Loss
−$4,560
Premium paid
Break-even
$384.40
-10.14% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
58%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-46.2 / -43.51 / 61.44
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| AXON Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $342 (-20%) | +$4,658 | +$4,402 | +$4,208 | +$4,218 |
| $364 (-15%) | +$3,002 | +$2,615 | +$2,225 | +$2,080 |
| $375 (-12%) ← target | +$2,193 | +$1,740 | +$1,237 | +$940 |
| $385 (-10%) | +$1,531 | +$1,024 | +$425 | -$59 |
| $406 (-5%) | +$259 | -$336 | -$1,105 | -$2,198 |
| $419 (-2%) | -$407 | -$1,036 | -$1,868 | -$3,481 |
| $428 (0%) ← spot | -$811 | -$1,455 | -$2,310 | -$4,337 |
| $436 (+2%) | -$1,185 | -$1,836 | -$2,698 | -$4,560 |
| $449 (+5%) | -$1,691 | -$2,339 | -$3,185 | -$4,560 |
| $471 (+10%) | -$2,397 | -$3,012 | -$3,771 | -$4,560 |
| $492 (+15%) | -$2,952 | -$3,508 | -$4,133 | -$4,560 |
| $513 (+20%) | -$3,379 | -$3,861 | -$4,342 | -$4,560 |
Uses AXON's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.