Target Price Playground
AXON
$427.77
๐ข
AXON IV: 56.7% โ LOW
(-30.6% vs 30d avg of 81.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $480 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
48d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $427.77 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AXON hits $480 by Dec 18: the long stock returns +$5,223 (12.2%) on $42,777 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Dec 18.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AXON hits $480 by Dec 18
+$5,223
+12.2% on $42,777 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$42,777
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$427.77
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
58%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AXON Price | Today | Nov 30 | Dec 30 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $342 (-20%) | -$8,555 | -$8,555 | -$8,555 |
| $364 (-15%) | -$6,417 | -$6,417 | -$6,417 |
| $385 (-10%) | -$4,278 | -$4,278 | -$4,278 |
| $406 (-5%) | -$2,139 | -$2,139 | -$2,139 |
| $419 (-2%) | -$856 | -$856 | -$856 |
| $428 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $436 (+2%) | +$856 | +$856 | +$856 |
| $449 (+5%) | +$2,139 | +$2,139 | +$2,139 |
| $471 (+10%) | +$4,278 | +$4,278 | +$4,278 |
| $480 (+12%) โ target | +$5,223 | +$5,223 | +$5,223 |
| $492 (+15%) | +$6,417 | +$6,417 | +$6,417 |
| $513 (+20%) | +$8,555 | +$8,555 | +$8,555 |
Uses AXON's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.