Target Price Playground
AXON
$427.77
🟢
AXON IV: 56.7% — LOW
(-30.6% vs 30d avg of 81.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $470 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $427.77 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $405 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $25.33 · Δ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If AXON hits $470 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$1,690 (3.7%) on $45,310 risked, vs +$4,223 (9.9%) for 100 shares on $42,777. Options give 0.4× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AXON is at $470. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if AXON hits $470 by Dec 18
+$1,690
+3.7% on $45,310 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$4,810
Put floors you at $405
Break-even
$453.10
+5.92% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
66%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
64.98 / -34.34 / 57.47
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| AXON Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $342 (-20%) | -$3,948 | -$4,311 | -$4,676 | -$4,810 |
| $364 (-15%) | -$3,277 | -$3,759 | -$4,332 | -$4,810 |
| $385 (-10%) | -$2,393 | -$2,961 | -$3,698 | -$4,810 |
| $406 (-5%) | -$1,297 | -$1,906 | -$2,717 | -$4,672 |
| $419 (-2%) | -$542 | -$1,155 | -$1,960 | -$3,389 |
| $428 (0%) ← spot | -$0 | -$606 | -$1,390 | -$2,533 |
| $436 (+2%) | +$570 | -$24 | -$773 | -$1,677 |
| $449 (+5%) | +$1,475 | +$909 | +$229 | -$394 |
| $470 (+10%) ← target | +$3,059 | +$2,558 | +$2,014 | +$1,690 |
| $492 (+15%) | +$4,857 | +$4,435 | +$4,036 | +$3,884 |
| $513 (+20%) | +$6,711 | +$6,368 | +$6,091 | +$6,022 |
Uses AXON's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.