Target Price Playground
AXON
$427.77
🟢
AXON IV: 56.7% — LOW
(-30.6% vs 30d avg of 81.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $460 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $427.77 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $460 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $32.4 · Δ 0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If AXON hits $460 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$6,463 (16.3%) on $39,537 risked, vs +$3,223 (7.5%) for 100 shares on $42,777. Options give 2.2× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AXON is at $460. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if AXON hits $460 by Dec 18
+$6,463
+16.3% on $39,537 risked
Max Profit
+$6,463
If the stock ≥ $460 at expiry
Max Loss
−$39,537
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$395.37
-7.57% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
73%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
55.85 / 48.11 / -63.82
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| AXON Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $342 (-20%) | -$5,702 | -$5,474 | -$5,333 | -$5,315 |
| $364 (-15%) | -$3,874 | -$3,525 | -$3,246 | -$3,177 |
| $385 (-10%) | -$2,192 | -$1,712 | -$1,244 | -$1,038 |
| $406 (-5%) | -$681 | -$77 | +$602 | +$1,101 |
| $419 (-2%) | +$137 | +$804 | +$1,601 | +$2,384 |
| $428 (0%) ← spot | +$645 | +$1,348 | +$2,213 | +$3,240 |
| $436 (+2%) | +$1,123 | +$1,855 | +$2,778 | +$4,096 |
| $449 (+5%) | +$1,783 | +$2,548 | +$3,531 | +$5,379 |
| $460 (+8%) ← target | +$2,289 | +$3,070 | +$4,079 | +$6,463 |
| $471 (+10%) | +$2,737 | +$3,524 | +$4,536 | +$6,463 |
| $492 (+15%) | +$3,522 | +$4,292 | +$5,249 | +$6,463 |
| $513 (+20%) | +$4,154 | +$4,878 | +$5,721 | +$6,463 |
Uses AXON's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.