Target Price Playground
CPRT
$30.13
🟢
CPRT IV: 35.1% — LOW
(-22.8% vs 30d avg of 45.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $34 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $30 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $1.82 · Δ 0.55
SHORT CALL · $33 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $0.71 · Δ 0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If CPRT hits $34 by Dec 18: the bull call spread returns +$189 (170.8%) on $111 risked, vs +$387 (12.8%) for 100 shares on $3,013. Options give 13.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CPRT is at $34. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if CPRT hits $34 by Dec 18
+$189
+170.8% on $111 risked
Max Profit
+$189
If the stock ≥ $33 at expiry
Max Loss
−$111
Net debit
Break-even
$31.11
+3.25% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
35%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
25.99 / -0.31 / 0.58
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| CPRT Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $24 (-20%) | -$103 | -$108 | -$111 | -$111 |
| $26 (-15%) | -$91 | -$100 | -$109 | -$111 |
| $27 (-10%) | -$70 | -$82 | -$100 | -$111 |
| $29 (-5%) | -$39 | -$51 | -$73 | -$111 |
| $30 (-2%) | -$17 | -$26 | -$45 | -$111 |
| $30 (0%) ← spot | -$1 | -$8 | -$22 | -$98 |
| $31 (+2%) | +$15 | +$11 | +$3 | -$38 |
| $32 (+5%) | +$39 | +$41 | +$44 | +$53 |
| $33 (+10%) | +$78 | +$87 | +$105 | +$189 |
| $34 (+13%) ← target | +$97 | +$110 | +$133 | +$189 |
| $35 (+15%) | +$111 | +$125 | +$149 | +$189 |
| $36 (+20%) | +$137 | +$152 | +$173 | +$189 |
Uses CPRT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.