Target Price Playground
CPRT
$30.13
🟢
CPRT IV: 35.1% — LOW
(-22.8% vs 30d avg of 45.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $27 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $30 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $1.45 · Δ -0.45
SHORT PUT · $28 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $0.7 · Δ -0.26
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If CPRT hits $27 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns +$125 (167.5%) on $75 risked, vs $-313 (-10.4%) for 100 shares on $3,013. Options give 16.1× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CPRT is at $27. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if CPRT hits $27 by Dec 18
+$125
+167.5% on $75 risked
Max Profit
+$125
If the stock ≤ $28 at expiry
Max Loss
−$75
Net debit
Break-even
$29.25
-2.91% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
45%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-19.29 / -0.09 / 0.79
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| CPRT Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $24 (-20%) | +$106 | +$114 | +$122 | +$125 |
| $26 (-15%) | +$88 | +$97 | +$112 | +$125 |
| $27 (-10%) ← target | +$65 | +$72 | +$87 | +$125 |
| $29 (-5%) | +$34 | +$35 | +$38 | +$63 |
| $30 (-2%) | +$16 | +$14 | +$8 | -$28 |
| $30 (0%) ← spot | +$5 | +$0 | -$10 | -$75 |
| $31 (+2%) | -$6 | -$13 | -$26 | -$75 |
| $32 (+5%) | -$20 | -$29 | -$46 | -$75 |
| $33 (+10%) | -$40 | -$50 | -$64 | -$75 |
| $35 (+15%) | -$54 | -$63 | -$72 | -$75 |
| $36 (+20%) | -$63 | -$69 | -$74 | -$75 |
Uses CPRT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.