Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
CPRT
$30.13
🟢
CPRT IV: 35.1% — LOW (-22.8% vs 30d avg of 45.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $32 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

📋 Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

🎯 Target

48d from today

⚙️ Legs

SHORT PUT · $28 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $0.7 · Δ -0.26
P&L at Expiry Now $30 Target $32 $21 $30 $39
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target

If CPRT hits $32 by Dec 18: the cash-secured put returns +$70 (2.6%) on $-70 credit (max loss $2,730), vs +$187 (6.2%) for 100 shares on $3,013. Options give 0.4× capital efficiency.

📅 Expiry

Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CPRT is at $32. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

📊 Projected Return

P&L if CPRT hits $32 by Dec 18
+$70
+2.6% on $2,730 max loss
Max Profit
+$70
If the stock ≥ $28 at expiry
Max Loss
−$2,730
If stock → $0 after assignment
Break-even
$27.30
-9.4% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
65%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
26.01 / 1.3 / -3.54
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
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📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates

CPRT Price Today Nov 16 Dec 2 Dec 18 (exp)
$24 (-20%) -$331 -$322 -$317 -$320
$26 (-15%) -$214 -$197 -$178 -$169
$27 (-10%) -$120 -$96 -$65 -$18
$29 (-5%) -$49 -$24 +$10 +$70
$30 (-2%) -$17 +$7 +$37 +$70
$30 (0%) ← spot -$0 +$22 +$49 +$70
$31 (+2%) +$14 +$34 +$57 +$70
$32 (+5%) +$31 +$48 +$64 +$70
$32 (+6%) ← target +$36 +$52 +$66 +$70
$33 (+10%) +$49 +$61 +$69 +$70
$35 (+15%) +$60 +$66 +$70 +$70
$36 (+20%) +$65 +$69 +$70 +$70
Uses CPRT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.