Target Price Playground
CPRT
$30.13
🟢
CPRT IV: 35.1% — LOW
(-22.8% vs 30d avg of 45.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $29 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $30 · Jan '27
Qty 1 · Premium $1.81 · Δ -0.45
SHORT PUT · $29 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $1.05 · Δ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If CPRT hits $29 by Dec 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$98 (129.8%) on $76 risked, vs $-113 (-3.8%) for 100 shares on $3,013. Options give 34.2× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CPRT is at $29. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if CPRT hits $29 by Dec 18
+$98
+129.8% on $76 risked
Max Profit
+$98
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
−$75
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$31.14
+3.36% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
79%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-9.65 / 0.22 / 1.37
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| CPRT Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $24 (-20%) | +$22 | +$23 | +$21 | +$16 |
| $26 (-15%) | +$24 | +$28 | +$30 | +$23 |
| $27 (-10%) | +$23 | +$30 | +$39 | +$42 |
| $29 (-5%) | +$17 | +$25 | +$38 | +$83 |
| $29 (-4%) ← target | +$15 | +$22 | +$35 | +$98 |
| $30 (-2%) | +$11 | +$18 | +$30 | +$68 |
| $30 (0%) ← spot | +$6 | +$12 | +$22 | +$39 |
| $31 (+2%) | +$1 | +$5 | +$12 | +$14 |
| $32 (+5%) | -$8 | -$6 | -$4 | -$16 |
| $33 (+10%) | -$23 | -$25 | -$30 | -$47 |
| $35 (+15%) | -$37 | -$41 | -$50 | -$64 |
| $36 (+20%) | -$49 | -$54 | -$62 | -$71 |
Uses CPRT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.