Target Price Playground
CPRT
$30.13
🟢
CPRT IV: 35.1% — LOW
(-22.8% vs 30d avg of 45.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $34 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $30 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $1.82 · Δ 0.55
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If CPRT hits $34 by Dec 18: the long call returns +$218 (119.8%) on $182 risked, vs +$387 (12.8%) for 100 shares on $3,013. Options give 9.4× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CPRT is at $34. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if CPRT hits $34 by Dec 18
+$218
+119.8% on $182 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
−$182
Premium paid
Break-even
$31.82
+5.61% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
35%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
55.2 / -1.9 / 4.33
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| CPRT Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $24 (-20%) | -$172 | -$179 | -$182 | -$182 |
| $26 (-15%) | -$156 | -$170 | -$180 | -$182 |
| $27 (-10%) | -$125 | -$147 | -$170 | -$182 |
| $29 (-5%) | -$74 | -$104 | -$140 | -$182 |
| $30 (-2%) | -$33 | -$65 | -$107 | -$182 |
| $30 (0%) ← spot | -$1 | -$34 | -$77 | -$169 |
| $31 (+2%) | +$34 | +$1 | -$41 | -$109 |
| $32 (+5%) | +$93 | +$62 | +$23 | -$18 |
| $33 (+10%) | +$205 | +$178 | +$150 | +$132 |
| $34 (+13%) ← target | +$276 | +$252 | +$230 | +$218 |
| $35 (+15%) | +$332 | +$311 | +$292 | +$283 |
| $36 (+20%) | +$468 | +$453 | +$441 | +$434 |
Uses CPRT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.