Target Price Playground
CPRT
$30.13
🟢
CPRT IV: 35.1% — LOW
(-22.8% vs 30d avg of 45.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $33 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $30.13 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $29 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $1.05 · Δ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If CPRT hits $33 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$182 (5.8%) on $3,118 risked, vs +$287 (9.5%) for 100 shares on $3,013. Options give 0.6× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CPRT is at $33. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if CPRT hits $33 by Dec 18
+$182
+5.8% on $3,118 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$218
Put floors you at $29
Break-even
$31.18
+3.5% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
49%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
65.13 / -1.46 / 4.04
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| CPRT Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $24 (-20%) | -$218 | -$223 | -$223 | -$218 |
| $26 (-15%) | -$194 | -$207 | -$218 | -$218 |
| $27 (-10%) | -$152 | -$173 | -$198 | -$218 |
| $29 (-5%) | -$87 | -$113 | -$147 | -$218 |
| $30 (-2%) | -$37 | -$63 | -$98 | -$165 |
| $30 (0%) ← spot | +$0 | -$25 | -$59 | -$105 |
| $31 (+2%) | +$41 | +$16 | -$14 | -$45 |
| $32 (+5%) | +$108 | +$86 | +$62 | +$46 |
| $33 (+10%) ← target | +$219 | +$202 | +$187 | +$182 |
| $35 (+15%) | +$366 | +$355 | +$348 | +$347 |
| $36 (+20%) | +$507 | +$501 | +$498 | +$498 |
Uses CPRT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.