Target Price Playground
CPRT
$30.13
🟢
CPRT IV: 35.1% — LOW
(-22.8% vs 30d avg of 45.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $35 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $30 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $1.82 · Δ 0.55
LONG PUT · $30 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $1.45 · Δ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If CPRT hits $35 by Dec 18: the long straddle returns +$173 (52.9%) on $327 risked, vs +$487 (16.2%) for 100 shares on $3,013. Options give 3.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CPRT is at $35. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if CPRT hits $35 by Dec 18
+$173
+52.9% on $327 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
−$327
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$33.27
+10.42% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
24%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
9.89 / -3.29 / 8.66
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| CPRT Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $24 (-20%) | +$265 | +$258 | +$258 | +$263 |
| $26 (-15%) | +$146 | +$125 | +$110 | +$112 |
| $27 (-10%) | +$58 | +$18 | -$22 | -$39 |
| $29 (-5%) | +$9 | -$45 | -$112 | -$189 |
| $30 (-2%) | +$0 | -$59 | -$135 | -$280 |
| $30 (0%) ← spot | +$4 | -$57 | -$135 | -$314 |
| $31 (+2%) | +$14 | -$46 | -$124 | -$254 |
| $32 (+5%) | +$42 | -$16 | -$86 | -$163 |
| $33 (+10%) | +$116 | +$68 | +$17 | -$13 |
| $35 (+15%) | +$218 | +$182 | +$151 | +$138 |
| $35 (+16%) ← target | +$245 | +$211 | +$184 | +$173 |
| $36 (+20%) | +$340 | +$315 | +$296 | +$289 |
Uses CPRT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.