Target Price Playground
CPRT
$30.13
🟢
CPRT IV: 35.1% — LOW
(-22.8% vs 30d avg of 45.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $33 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $30.13 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $33 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $0.71 · Δ 0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If CPRT hits $33 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$358 (12.2%) on $2,942 risked, vs +$287 (9.5%) for 100 shares on $3,013. Options give 1.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CPRT is at $33. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if CPRT hits $33 by Dec 18
+$358
+12.2% on $2,942 risked
Max Profit
+$358
If the stock ≥ $33 at expiry
Max Loss
−$2,942
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$29.42
-2.36% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
49%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
70.79 / 1.59 / -3.75
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| CPRT Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $24 (-20%) | -$534 | -$532 | -$532 | -$532 |
| $26 (-15%) | -$387 | -$383 | -$381 | -$381 |
| $27 (-10%) | -$246 | -$236 | -$231 | -$230 |
| $29 (-5%) | -$116 | -$98 | -$84 | -$80 |
| $30 (-2%) | -$44 | -$21 | +$1 | +$11 |
| $30 (0%) ← spot | -$0 | +$26 | +$54 | +$71 |
| $31 (+2%) | +$41 | +$70 | +$104 | +$131 |
| $32 (+5%) | +$97 | +$130 | +$171 | +$222 |
| $33 (+10%) ← target | +$167 | +$203 | +$250 | +$358 |
| $35 (+15%) | +$231 | +$266 | +$309 | +$358 |
| $36 (+20%) | +$271 | +$302 | +$335 | +$358 |
Uses CPRT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.