Target Price Playground
CRWD
$183.28
๐ข
CRWD IV: 61.7% โ LOW
(-27.5% vs 30d avg of 85.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $200 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
54d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $183.28 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $200 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.07 ยท ฮ 0.42
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If CRWD hits $200 by Sep 18: the covered call returns +$2,879 (16.8%) on $17,121 risked, vs +$1,672 (9.1%) for 100 shares on $18,328. Options give 1.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (54 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CRWD is at $200. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if CRWD hits $200 by Sep 18
+$2,879
+16.8% on $17,121 risked
Max Profit
+$2,879
If the stock โฅ $200 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$17,121
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$171.21
-6.59% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 54d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
58.14 / 16.87 / -29.65
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| CRWD Price | Today | Aug 13 | Aug 31 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $147 (-20%) | -$2,669 | -$2,550 | -$2,471 | -$2,459 |
| $156 (-15%) | -$1,898 | -$1,725 | -$1,581 | -$1,542 |
| $165 (-10%) | -$1,188 | -$957 | -$729 | -$626 |
| $174 (-5%) | -$545 | -$260 | +$60 | +$291 |
| $180 (-2%) | -$194 | +$119 | +$491 | +$840 |
| $183 (0%) โ spot | +$26 | +$355 | +$758 | +$1,207 |
| $187 (+2%) | +$234 | +$578 | +$1,007 | +$1,574 |
| $192 (+5%) | +$523 | +$884 | +$1,344 | +$2,123 |
| $200 (+9%) โ target | +$880 | +$1,254 | +$1,737 | +$2,879 |
| $211 (+15%) | +$1,309 | +$1,684 | +$2,160 | +$2,879 |
| $220 (+20%) | +$1,608 | +$1,970 | +$2,408 | +$2,879 |
Uses CRWD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.