Target Price Playground
CSCO
$117.94
🟢
CSCO IV: 34.2% — LOW
(-33.9% vs 30d avg of 51.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $125 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $117.94 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $125 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $5.38 · Δ 0.41
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If CSCO hits $125 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$1,244 (11.1%) on $11,256 risked, vs +$706 (6.0%) for 100 shares on $11,794. Options give 1.8× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CSCO is at $125. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if CSCO hits $125 by Dec 18
+$1,244
+11.1% on $11,256 risked
Max Profit
+$1,244
If the stock ≥ $125 at expiry
Max Loss
−$11,256
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$112.56
-4.56% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
72%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
59.07 / 5.61 / -21.48
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| CSCO Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $94 (-20%) | -$1,862 | -$1,834 | -$1,822 | -$1,821 |
| $100 (-15%) | -$1,326 | -$1,271 | -$1,236 | -$1,231 |
| $106 (-10%) | -$831 | -$741 | -$665 | -$641 |
| $112 (-5%) | -$391 | -$266 | -$133 | -$52 |
| $116 (-2%) | -$156 | -$13 | +$154 | +$302 |
| $118 (0%) ← spot | -$14 | +$140 | +$327 | +$538 |
| $120 (+2%) | +$118 | +$280 | +$483 | +$774 |
| $125 (+6%) ← target | +$349 | +$520 | +$739 | +$1,244 |
| $130 (+10%) | +$539 | +$711 | +$925 | +$1,244 |
| $136 (+15%) | +$724 | +$884 | +$1,071 | +$1,244 |
| $142 (+20%) | +$858 | +$1,000 | +$1,148 | +$1,244 |
Uses CSCO's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.