Target Price Playground
CTAS
$219.82
🟢
CTAS IV: 26.5% — LOW
(-57.9% vs 30d avg of 62.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $245 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $220 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $9.75 · Δ 0.73
SHORT CALL · $235 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.47 · Δ 0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If CTAS hits $245 by Dec 18: the bull call spread returns +$872 (138.9%) on $628 risked, vs +$2,518 (11.5%) for 100 shares on $21,982. Options give 12.1× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CTAS is at $245. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if CTAS hits $245 by Dec 18
+$872
+138.9% on $628 risked
Max Profit
+$872
If the stock ≥ $235 at expiry
Max Loss
−$628
Net debit
Break-even
$226.28
+2.94% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
23%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
45.0 / 2.41 / 0.44
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| CTAS Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $176 (-20%) | -$621 | -$627 | -$628 | -$628 |
| $187 (-15%) | -$594 | -$617 | -$627 | -$628 |
| $198 (-10%) | -$510 | -$564 | -$615 | -$628 |
| $209 (-5%) | -$337 | -$408 | -$518 | -$628 |
| $215 (-2%) | -$190 | -$249 | -$360 | -$628 |
| $220 (0%) ← spot | -$78 | -$120 | -$205 | -$628 |
| $224 (+2%) | +$39 | +$20 | -$20 | -$206 |
| $231 (+5%) | +$214 | +$233 | +$272 | +$453 |
| $242 (+10%) | +$473 | +$536 | +$649 | +$872 |
| $245 (+11%) ← target | +$535 | +$603 | +$717 | +$872 |
| $253 (+15%) | +$658 | +$726 | +$816 | +$872 |
| $264 (+20%) | +$769 | +$818 | +$861 | +$872 |
Uses CTAS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.