Target Price Playground
CTAS
$219.82
🟢
CTAS IV: 26.5% — LOW
(-57.9% vs 30d avg of 62.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $195 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $220 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $7.7 · Δ -0.38
SHORT PUT · $200 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $2.2 · Δ -0.15
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If CTAS hits $195 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns +$1,450 (263.6%) on $550 risked, vs $-2,482 (-11.3%) for 100 shares on $21,982. Options give 23.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CTAS is at $195. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if CTAS hits $195 by Dec 18
+$1,450
+263.6% on $550 risked
Max Profit
+$1,450
If the stock ≤ $200 at expiry
Max Loss
−$550
Net debit
Break-even
$214.50
-2.42% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
24%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-22.52 / -4.68 / 12.01
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| CTAS Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $176 (-20%) | +$1,360 | +$1,408 | +$1,442 | +$1,450 |
| $187 (-15%) | +$1,190 | +$1,278 | +$1,385 | +$1,450 |
| $195 (-11%) ← target | +$972 | +$1,062 | +$1,209 | +$1,450 |
| $198 (-10%) | +$880 | +$961 | +$1,103 | +$1,450 |
| $209 (-5%) | +$475 | +$488 | +$509 | +$567 |
| $215 (-2%) | +$231 | +$195 | +$122 | -$92 |
| $220 (0%) ← spot | +$82 | +$21 | -$96 | -$532 |
| $224 (+2%) | -$52 | -$129 | -$265 | -$550 |
| $231 (+5%) | -$216 | -$301 | -$427 | -$550 |
| $242 (+10%) | -$398 | -$464 | -$529 | -$550 |
| $253 (+15%) | -$489 | -$526 | -$548 | -$550 |
| $264 (+20%) | -$529 | -$544 | -$550 | -$550 |
Uses CTAS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.