Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
CTAS
$219.82
🟢
CTAS IV: 26.5% — LOW (-57.9% vs 30d avg of 62.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $230 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

📋 Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

🎯 Target

48d from today

⚙️ Legs

SHORT PUT · $200 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $2.2 · Δ -0.15
P&L at Expiry Now $220 Target $230 $154 $220 $286
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target

If CTAS hits $230 by Dec 18: the cash-secured put returns +$220 (1.1%) on $-220 credit (max loss $19,780), vs +$1,018 (4.6%) for 100 shares on $21,982. Options give 0.2× capital efficiency.

📅 Expiry

Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CTAS is at $230. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

📊 Projected Return

P&L if CTAS hits $230 by Dec 18
+$220
+1.1% on $19,780 max loss
Max Profit
+$220
If the stock ≥ $200 at expiry
Max Loss
−$19,780
If stock → $0 after assignment
Break-even
$197.80
-10.02% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
15.42 / 7.21 / -20.03
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
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📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates

CTAS Price Today Nov 16 Dec 2 Dec 18 (exp)
$176 (-20%) -$2,162 -$2,150 -$2,159 -$2,194
$187 (-15%) -$1,266 -$1,193 -$1,117 -$1,095
$198 (-10%) -$589 -$472 -$313 +$4
$209 (-5%) -$160 -$49 +$87 +$220
$215 (-2%) -$4 +$84 +$176 +$220
$220 (0%) ← spot +$67 +$138 +$201 +$220
$224 (+2%) +$118 +$172 +$212 +$220
$230 (+5%) ← target +$162 +$198 +$218 +$220
$242 (+10%) +$204 +$216 +$220 +$220
$253 (+15%) +$216 +$219 +$220 +$220
$264 (+20%) +$219 +$220 +$220 +$220
Uses CTAS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.