Target Price Playground
CTAS
$219.82
🟢
CTAS IV: 26.5% — LOW
(-57.9% vs 30d avg of 62.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $235 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $219.82 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $235 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.47 · Δ 0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If CTAS hits $235 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$1,865 (8.6%) on $21,635 risked, vs +$1,518 (6.9%) for 100 shares on $21,982. Options give 1.2× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CTAS is at $235. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if CTAS hits $235 by Dec 18
+$1,865
+8.6% on $21,635 risked
Max Profit
+$1,865
If the stock ≥ $235 at expiry
Max Loss
−$21,635
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$216.35
-1.58% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
47%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
72.1 / 8.1 / -26.79
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| CTAS Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $176 (-20%) | -$4,050 | -$4,049 | -$4,049 | -$4,049 |
| $187 (-15%) | -$2,957 | -$2,951 | -$2,950 | -$2,950 |
| $198 (-10%) | -$1,886 | -$1,861 | -$1,851 | -$1,851 |
| $209 (-5%) | -$879 | -$808 | -$760 | -$752 |
| $215 (-2%) | -$332 | -$224 | -$127 | -$93 |
| $220 (0%) ← spot | -$0 | +$134 | +$272 | +$347 |
| $224 (+2%) | +$301 | +$458 | +$637 | +$787 |
| $231 (+5%) | +$690 | +$871 | +$1,096 | +$1,446 |
| $235 (+7%) ← target | +$897 | +$1,084 | +$1,322 | +$1,865 |
| $242 (+10%) | +$1,168 | +$1,352 | +$1,577 | +$1,865 |
| $253 (+15%) | +$1,457 | +$1,608 | +$1,764 | +$1,865 |
| $264 (+20%) | +$1,610 | +$1,718 | +$1,810 | +$1,865 |
Uses CTAS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.