Target Price Playground
CTAS
$219.82
🟢
CTAS IV: 26.5% — LOW
(-57.9% vs 30d avg of 62.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $210 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $220 · Jan '27
Qty 1 · Premium $9.1 · Δ -0.38
SHORT PUT · $210 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $4.2 · Δ -0.24
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If CTAS hits $210 by Dec 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$834 (170.3%) on $490 risked, vs $-982 (-4.5%) for 100 shares on $21,982. Options give 37.8× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CTAS is at $210. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if CTAS hits $210 by Dec 18
+$834
+170.3% on $490 risked
Max Profit
+$832
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
−$489
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$226.64
+3.1% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
64%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-13.42 / 1.1 / 12.9
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| CTAS Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $176 (-20%) | +$437 | +$441 | +$437 | +$435 |
| $187 (-15%) | +$429 | +$449 | +$457 | +$442 |
| $198 (-10%) | +$378 | +$423 | +$478 | +$490 |
| $210 (-4%) ← target | +$245 | +$291 | +$370 | +$705 |
| $215 (-2%) | +$163 | +$196 | +$252 | +$355 |
| $220 (0%) ← spot | +$90 | +$109 | +$136 | +$124 |
| $224 (+2%) | +$15 | +$19 | +$15 | -$60 |
| $231 (+5%) | -$94 | -$111 | -$151 | -$255 |
| $242 (+10%) | -$249 | -$286 | -$343 | -$419 |
| $253 (+15%) | -$359 | -$394 | -$436 | -$473 |
| $264 (+20%) | -$425 | -$450 | -$473 | -$487 |
Uses CTAS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.