Target Price Playground
CTAS
$219.82
🟢
CTAS IV: 26.5% — LOW
(-57.9% vs 30d avg of 62.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $245 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $220 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $9.75 · Δ 0.73
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If CTAS hits $245 by Dec 18: the long call returns +$1,525 (156.4%) on $975 risked, vs +$2,518 (11.5%) for 100 shares on $21,982. Options give 13.6× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CTAS is at $245. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if CTAS hits $245 by Dec 18
+$1,525
+156.4% on $975 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
−$975
Premium paid
Break-even
$229.75
+4.52% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
23%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
72.9 / -5.7 / 27.23
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| CTAS Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $176 (-20%) | -$967 | -$974 | -$975 | -$975 |
| $187 (-15%) | -$934 | -$963 | -$974 | -$975 |
| $198 (-10%) | -$822 | -$901 | -$962 | -$975 |
| $209 (-5%) | -$557 | -$699 | -$857 | -$975 |
| $215 (-2%) | -$298 | -$465 | -$673 | -$975 |
| $220 (0%) ← spot | -$78 | -$254 | -$476 | -$975 |
| $224 (+2%) | +$177 | +$2 | -$217 | -$553 |
| $231 (+5%) | +$623 | +$461 | +$274 | +$106 |
| $242 (+10%) | +$1,503 | +$1,382 | +$1,270 | +$1,205 |
| $245 (+11%) ← target | +$1,784 | +$1,675 | +$1,580 | +$1,525 |
| $253 (+15%) | +$2,499 | +$2,416 | +$2,350 | +$2,304 |
| $264 (+20%) | +$3,555 | +$3,495 | +$3,447 | +$3,403 |
Uses CTAS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.