Target Price Playground
CTAS
$219.82
🟢
CTAS IV: 26.5% — LOW
(-57.9% vs 30d avg of 62.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $195 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $220 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $7.7 · Δ -0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If CTAS hits $195 by Dec 18: the long put returns +$1,730 (224.7%) on $770 risked, vs $-2,482 (-11.3%) for 100 shares on $21,982. Options give 19.9× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CTAS is at $195. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if CTAS hits $195 by Dec 18
+$1,730
+224.7% on $770 risked
Max Profit
+$21,230
If stock → $0
Max Loss
−$770
Premium paid
Break-even
$212.30
-3.42% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
24%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-37.94 / -11.9 / 32.04
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| CTAS Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $176 (-20%) | +$3,522 | +$3,559 | +$3,601 | +$3,644 |
| $187 (-15%) | +$2,456 | +$2,471 | +$2,502 | +$2,545 |
| $195 (-11%) ← target | +$1,713 | +$1,692 | +$1,693 | +$1,730 |
| $198 (-10%) | +$1,469 | +$1,433 | +$1,416 | +$1,446 |
| $209 (-5%) | +$635 | +$537 | +$422 | +$347 |
| $215 (-2%) | +$236 | +$111 | -$54 | -$312 |
| $220 (0%) ← spot | +$15 | -$117 | -$297 | -$752 |
| $224 (+2%) | -$169 | -$302 | -$477 | -$770 |
| $231 (+5%) | -$383 | -$502 | -$645 | -$770 |
| $242 (+10%) | -$602 | -$680 | -$749 | -$770 |
| $253 (+15%) | -$705 | -$745 | -$768 | -$770 |
| $264 (+20%) | -$748 | -$764 | -$770 | -$770 |
Uses CTAS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.