Target Price Playground
CTAS
$219.82
🟢
CTAS IV: 26.5% — LOW
(-57.9% vs 30d avg of 62.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $240 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $219.82 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $210 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $4.2 · Δ -0.24
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If CTAS hits $240 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$1,598 (7.1%) on $22,402 risked, vs +$2,018 (9.2%) for 100 shares on $21,982. Options give 0.8× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CTAS is at $240. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if CTAS hits $240 by Dec 18
+$1,598
+7.1% on $22,402 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$1,402
Put floors you at $210
Break-even
$224.02
+1.91% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
34%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
75.55 / -8.9 / 27.07
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| CTAS Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $176 (-20%) | -$1,499 | -$1,478 | -$1,443 | -$1,402 |
| $187 (-15%) | -$1,409 | -$1,433 | -$1,436 | -$1,402 |
| $198 (-10%) | -$1,175 | -$1,261 | -$1,356 | -$1,402 |
| $209 (-5%) | -$723 | -$848 | -$1,018 | -$1,402 |
| $215 (-2%) | -$338 | -$462 | -$625 | -$860 |
| $220 (0%) ← spot | -$37 | -$152 | -$291 | -$420 |
| $224 (+2%) | +$295 | +$195 | +$85 | +$20 |
| $231 (+5%) | +$840 | +$765 | +$699 | +$679 |
| $240 (+9%) ← target | +$1,668 | +$1,626 | +$1,601 | +$1,598 |
| $253 (+15%) | +$2,896 | +$2,882 | +$2,877 | +$2,877 |
| $264 (+20%) | +$3,981 | +$3,977 | +$3,976 | +$3,976 |
Uses CTAS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.