Target Price Playground
CTAS
$219.82
🟢
CTAS IV: 26.5% — LOW
(-57.9% vs 30d avg of 62.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $255 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $220 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $9.75 · Δ 0.73
LONG PUT · $220 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $7.7 · Δ -0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If CTAS hits $255 by Dec 18: the long straddle returns +$1,755 (100.6%) on $1,745 risked, vs +$3,518 (16.0%) for 100 shares on $21,982. Options give 6.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if CTAS is at $255. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if CTAS hits $255 by Dec 18
+$1,755
+100.6% on $1,745 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
−$1,745
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$202.55
-7.86% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
10%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
34.96 / -17.59 / 59.27
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| CTAS Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $176 (-20%) | +$2,554 | +$2,585 | +$2,626 | +$2,669 |
| $187 (-15%) | +$1,522 | +$1,508 | +$1,528 | +$1,570 |
| $198 (-10%) | +$647 | +$532 | +$455 | +$471 |
| $209 (-5%) | +$78 | -$162 | -$435 | -$628 |
| $215 (-2%) | -$62 | -$354 | -$727 | -$1,287 |
| $220 (0%) ← spot | -$63 | -$371 | -$773 | -$1,727 |
| $224 (+2%) | +$8 | -$300 | -$694 | -$1,323 |
| $231 (+5%) | +$240 | -$41 | -$370 | -$664 |
| $242 (+10%) | +$902 | +$702 | +$521 | +$435 |
| $253 (+15%) | +$1,794 | +$1,670 | +$1,582 | +$1,534 |
| $255 (+16%) ← target | +$1,990 | +$1,879 | +$1,801 | +$1,755 |
| $264 (+20%) | +$2,807 | +$2,731 | +$2,677 | +$2,633 |
Uses CTAS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.