Target Price Playground
EXC
$46.16
🟢
EXC IV: 17.2% — LOW
(-54.8% vs 30d avg of 38.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $52 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $46 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $1.45 · Δ 0.53
SHORT CALL · $50 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $0.2 · Δ 0.13
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If EXC hits $52 by Dec 18: the bull call spread returns +$275 (220.0%) on $125 risked, vs +$584 (12.7%) for 100 shares on $4,616. Options give 17.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if EXC is at $52. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if EXC hits $52 by Dec 18
+$275
+220.0% on $125 risked
Max Profit
+$275
If the stock ≥ $50 at expiry
Max Loss
−$125
Net debit
Break-even
$47.25
+2.36% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
10%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
39.89 / -0.61 / 3.53
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| EXC Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $37 (-20%) | -$125 | -$125 | -$125 | -$125 |
| $39 (-15%) | -$122 | -$124 | -$125 | -$125 |
| $42 (-10%) | -$109 | -$118 | -$124 | -$125 |
| $44 (-5%) | -$69 | -$87 | -$109 | -$125 |
| $45 (-2%) | -$28 | -$46 | -$74 | -$125 |
| $46 (0%) ← spot | +$6 | -$8 | -$34 | -$109 |
| $47 (+2%) | +$42 | +$34 | +$19 | -$17 |
| $48 (+5%) | +$99 | +$102 | +$109 | +$122 |
| $51 (+10%) | +$181 | +$197 | +$223 | +$275 |
| $52 (+13%) ← target | +$213 | +$229 | +$253 | +$275 |
| $53 (+15%) | +$233 | +$248 | +$266 | +$275 |
| $55 (+20%) | +$259 | +$267 | +$273 | +$275 |
Uses EXC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.