Target Price Playground
EXC
$46.16
🟢
EXC IV: 17.2% — LOW
(-54.8% vs 30d avg of 38.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $48 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
SHORT PUT · $42 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $0.45 · Δ -0.15
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Cash-Secured Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If EXC hits $48 by Dec 18: the cash-secured put returns +$45 (1.1%) on $-45 credit (max loss $4,155), vs +$184 (4.0%) for 100 shares on $4,616. Options give 0.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if EXC is at $48. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if EXC hits $48 by Dec 18
+$45
+1.1% on $4,155 max loss
Max Profit
+$45
If the stock ≥ $42 at expiry
Max Loss
−$4,155
If stock → $0 after assignment
Break-even
$41.55
-9.99% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
60%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
15.29 / 1.06 / -4.23
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| EXC Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $37 (-20%) | -$444 | -$448 | -$454 | -$462 |
| $39 (-15%) | -$243 | -$235 | -$228 | -$231 |
| $42 (-10%) | -$94 | -$75 | -$49 | -$1 |
| $44 (-5%) | -$7 | +$10 | +$30 | +$45 |
| $45 (-2%) | +$19 | +$31 | +$42 | +$45 |
| $46 (0%) ← spot | +$30 | +$38 | +$44 | +$45 |
| $47 (+2%) | +$36 | +$42 | +$45 | +$45 |
| $48 (+4%) ← target | +$40 | +$44 | +$45 | +$45 |
| $48 (+5%) | +$42 | +$44 | +$45 | +$45 |
| $51 (+10%) | +$44 | +$45 | +$45 | +$45 |
| $53 (+15%) | +$45 | +$45 | +$45 | +$45 |
| $55 (+20%) | +$45 | +$45 | +$45 | +$45 |
Uses EXC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.