Target Price Playground
EXC
$46.16
🟢
EXC IV: 17.2% — LOW
(-54.8% vs 30d avg of 38.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $50 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $46.16 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $50 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $0.2 · Δ 0.13
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If EXC hits $50 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$404 (8.8%) on $4,596 risked, vs +$384 (8.3%) for 100 shares on $4,616. Options give 1.1× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if EXC is at $50. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if EXC hits $50 by Dec 18
+$404
+8.8% on $4,596 risked
Max Profit
+$404
If the stock ≥ $50 at expiry
Max Loss
−$4,596
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$45.96
-0.43% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
28%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
87.25 / 0.69 / -3.11
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| EXC Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $37 (-20%) | -$903 | -$903 | -$903 | -$903 |
| $39 (-15%) | -$672 | -$672 | -$672 | -$672 |
| $42 (-10%) | -$443 | -$442 | -$442 | -$442 |
| $44 (-5%) | -$219 | -$213 | -$211 | -$211 |
| $45 (-2%) | -$92 | -$80 | -$73 | -$72 |
| $46 (0%) ← spot | -$13 | +$3 | +$17 | +$20 |
| $47 (+2%) | +$59 | +$81 | +$102 | +$112 |
| $48 (+5%) | +$154 | +$183 | +$217 | +$251 |
| $50 (+8%) ← target | +$236 | +$269 | +$310 | +$404 |
| $51 (+10%) | +$268 | +$301 | +$342 | +$404 |
| $53 (+15%) | +$331 | +$358 | +$386 | +$404 |
| $55 (+20%) | +$360 | +$378 | +$393 | +$404 |
Uses EXC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.