Target Price Playground
EXC
$46.16
🟢
EXC IV: 17.2% — LOW
(-54.8% vs 30d avg of 38.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $44 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $46 · Jan '27
Qty 1 · Premium $1.45 · Δ -0.47
SHORT PUT · $44 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $0.6 · Δ -0.24
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If EXC hits $44 by Dec 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$125 (147.6%) on $85 risked, vs $-216 (-4.7%) for 100 shares on $4,616. Options give 31.4× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if EXC is at $44. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if EXC hits $44 by Dec 18
+$125
+147.6% on $85 risked
Max Profit
+$120
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
−$85
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$45.99
-0.37% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
54%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-22.96 / 0.04 / 2.65
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| EXC Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $37 (-20%) | +$99 | +$99 | +$99 | +$99 |
| $39 (-15%) | +$97 | +$100 | +$101 | +$99 |
| $42 (-10%) | +$87 | +$95 | +$104 | +$104 |
| $44 (-5%) ← target | +$56 | +$64 | +$79 | +$137 |
| $45 (-2%) | +$33 | +$38 | +$46 | +$55 |
| $46 (0%) ← spot | +$15 | +$16 | +$18 | +$8 |
| $47 (+2%) | -$3 | -$5 | -$10 | -$27 |
| $48 (+5%) | -$28 | -$33 | -$43 | -$60 |
| $51 (+10%) | -$58 | -$64 | -$72 | -$80 |
| $53 (+15%) | -$74 | -$78 | -$82 | -$84 |
| $55 (+20%) | -$81 | -$83 | -$84 | -$85 |
Uses EXC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.