Target Price Playground
EXC
$46.16
🟢
EXC IV: 17.2% — LOW
(-54.8% vs 30d avg of 38.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $52 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $46 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $1.45 · Δ 0.53
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If EXC hits $52 by Dec 18: the long call returns +$455 (313.8%) on $145 risked, vs +$584 (12.7%) for 100 shares on $4,616. Options give 24.7× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if EXC is at $52. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if EXC hits $52 by Dec 18
+$455
+313.8% on $145 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
−$145
Premium paid
Break-even
$47.45
+2.79% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
10%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
52.64 / -1.3 / 6.65
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| EXC Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $37 (-20%) | -$145 | -$145 | -$145 | -$145 |
| $39 (-15%) | -$142 | -$144 | -$145 | -$145 |
| $42 (-10%) | -$128 | -$138 | -$144 | -$145 |
| $44 (-5%) | -$81 | -$105 | -$129 | -$145 |
| $45 (-2%) | -$28 | -$57 | -$93 | -$145 |
| $46 (0%) ← spot | +$19 | -$12 | -$50 | -$129 |
| $47 (+2%) | +$75 | +$45 | +$9 | -$37 |
| $48 (+5%) | +$176 | +$150 | +$122 | +$102 |
| $51 (+10%) | +$375 | +$358 | +$343 | +$333 |
| $52 (+13%) ← target | +$490 | +$476 | +$464 | +$455 |
| $53 (+15%) | +$594 | +$582 | +$572 | +$563 |
| $55 (+20%) | +$822 | +$812 | +$803 | +$794 |
Uses EXC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.